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Methodology

Where every number in the Barometer comes from, what I do to it, and what I leave out on purpose.

José Covas FRICS

Sources and licences

  • INE — Statistics Portugal. Public JSON API. Licence: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0). Cited as «Source: Instituto Nacional de Estatística – Portugal (Statistics Portugal)», with the indicator and the period.
  • Banco de Portugal — BPstat. JSON-stat API. Free use, provided the figures are reproduced exactly and Banco de Portugal is named as the source. BPstat is not built into this site.
  • Eurostat. Dissemination API. Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged; Eurostat is not responsible for how the figures are presented here.

What I do to the numbers, and what I don’t

  • I show each value exactly as the source publishes it. I make no forecasts and no estimates of my own.
  • Changes «vs previous period» and «vs a year earlier» are calculated from the official values shown (in percentage points for series that are already rates), except where a card says «published figure».
  • Arrows and colours show direction only. They do not say whether a move is good or bad.
  • The choice of series and the presentation — charts, order, and the notes on what each figure measures and does not measure — are mine.
  • Updates are automatic. A scheduled process reads the official APIs every ten minutes, one series at a time, and keeps the last valid value. If a source fails, the last good value stays on screen with the date it was read.
  • Sources revise their data. A value here can change when the source revises it.
  • Charts open on the full history each source publishes. Each chart shows the month or quarter where its data begins.

Left out on purpose

  • Euribor. A proprietary index of the European Money Markets Institute (EMMI). I do not republish it. Instead I show INE’s implied interest rate on housing loans and Banco de Portugal’s rates on new contracts.
  • IHRU / Portal da Habitação (non-commercial licence) and Pordata (reuse not authorised). Not used; I always go to the original source.
  • Asking prices from property portals. They are not official data, and they are not mine to republish.
  • Household effort rate. There is no regular official series, so it is not shown.

News (Radar)

Each Radar entry carries only the newspaper’s name, the date, the headline and a link to the original article, plus my own comment. The article’s text and the RSS content are never copied (article 188.º-A of the Portuguese Copyright Code).

Series and codes

Property. INE 0012248 and 0012250 (bank valuation of housing) · 0014767 and 0014765 (House Price Index, base 2025) · 0012785 and 0012786 (transactions) · 0012239 (median sale price, quarter) · 0014706 (median rent of new leases, quarter) · 0012096 (buildings licensed) · 0011748 (construction cost of new housing) · 0006339 (implied interest rate). BPstat 12748362 and 12533714 (rates on new housing loans). Eurostat prc_hpi_q (annual rate, all dwellings; Portugal and EU27).
Macroeconomics (Eurostat, Portugal). une_rt_m (unemployment rate, 15–74, seasonally adjusted) · prc_hicp_minr (HICP, annual rate of change) · namq_10_gdp (GDP in volume, change on the same quarter of the previous year) · lc_lci_r2_q (labour cost index, wages and salaries, change on a year earlier) · nasq_10_ki (gross household saving rate).

Not a valuation, and not investment advice. A valuation for mortgage lending in Portugal is carried out by a valuer registered with the CMVM.